Comments made by Eduard Lushin, Head of Treasury to AIF18 February 2019
AiF. What Will Happen to the Ruble in the Spring? Currency Forecast
Argumenty i Fakty, a weekly newspaper, one of the biggest Russian socio-political publications, published a review article on the Russian foreign exchange market. According to the forecast of the interviewed specialists, the rate of the ruble this spring will depend on a number of factors.
Eduard Lushin, SDM Bank’s Head of Treasury, says, “The spring period will be quite volatile. On the one hand, the uncertainty about the CBR rate (the end of the increase cycle or another increase). On the other hand, the pressure on emerging markets amid the economic slowdown in certain regions of the world. In May, a series of dividend cut-offs will begin, and a local capital outflow is possible after register fixation. March and May will be difficult for the ruble. Positive factors for the ruble are further cooperation with OPEC+ members, consolidation of oil quotes in the range of 60-70 dollars per barrel of Brent, moderately tough policy of the Bank of Russia, ready for proactive steps to increase rates to curb inflation.
Now is a good time to start buying currency, we do not expect the ruble to strengthen below 65 rubles per US dollar.”